全球观察：中国地区经济显示活力 | ||||||
2011-09-08 | ||||||
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中国地区经济走势强劲
2011年上半年，尽管中国GDP总体增速降至一位数（9.6%），但大多数省份的经济增速仍保持在两位数。只有北京、上海和浙江三个沿海省市的增速是一位数。北京增长最为缓慢，仅同比增长8%；上海增速略高于北京，同比增长8.4%；而浙江为6个季度以来增速首次降至一位数，浙江同比增长9.9%。
除上述三个沿海地区外，中国地区经济增长态势。沿海直辖市天津和内陆直辖市重庆GDP增长最为强劲：上半年天津经济同比增长16.6%，而强劲的工业经济带动重庆经济同比增长16.5%。中国有18个省份的增速超过13%，其中15个是内陆省份。
经济减速集中于沿海地区和房地产相关部门
中国国家层面的增长放缓相当微弱，由1季度同比增长9.7%降至上半年同比增长9.6%，而在地方，增长放缓的迹象更加微弱。事实上，西部地区只有西藏自治区的增长有所放缓，其增长率由1季度20%下降至上半年下降16.5%。在中部省份中，只有4个省增长有所下降。中国增长下降的省份集中在沿海地区，同1季度相比10个地区中有7个报告增长放缓。中国沿海
除上述三个沿海地区外，中国地区经济增长态势。沿海直辖市天津和内陆直辖市重庆GDP增长最为强劲：上半年天津经济同比增长16.6%，而强劲的工业经济带动重庆经济同比增长16.5%。中国有18个省份的增速超过13%，其中15个是内陆省份。
经济减速集中于沿海地区和房地产相关部门
中国国家层面的增长放缓相当微弱，由1季度同比增长9.7%降至上半年同比增长9.6%，而在地方，增长放缓的迹象更加微弱。事实上，西部地区只有西藏自治区的增长有所放缓，其增长率由1季度20%下降至上半年下降16.5%。在中部省份中，只有4个省增长有所下降。中国增长下降的省份集中在沿海地区，同1季度相比10个地区中有7个报告增长放缓。中国沿海
地区平均GDP增长由1季度11.6%下降至上半年增长11.3%，而中部地区由13.2%加速至13.3%，西部地区由13.1%加速至13.5%。
事实上，中国沿海地区GDP增长面临着多重挑战，包括能源短缺和宏观控制措施。例如，北京GDP增长较2010年上半年同比下降4%，主要因为房地产和汽车市场政策，中国的首都在刺激周期结束后，首次出台了房屋限购和汽车限购政策。北京当局估计，房屋和汽车市场的下降，占到整体下降的2.1%。世博会结束后的上海，经历了奥运会结束后北京遇到的情况－－投资下降，上半年上海地方投资下降了5.5%，成为中国唯一一个报告投资下降的地区。
中国经济软着陆主要体现在沿海地区，但严重的下降出现在一些经济结构十分单一的地区。海南是一个很好的例子。岛内GDP增长显著下降，上半年降至10.4%，增幅比2010年上半年低9%，这是中国各省中下降最为明显的。尽管去年上半年海南是中国增长最快的地区，但是现在却是增长最缓慢的地区。这种过山车的情况主要因为在2010年岛内房地产市场短期繁荣后，房地产市场受到控制。
事实上，中国沿海地区GDP增长面临着多重挑战，包括能源短缺和宏观控制措施。例如，北京GDP增长较2010年上半年同比下降4%，主要因为房地产和汽车市场政策，中国的首都在刺激周期结束后，首次出台了房屋限购和汽车限购政策。北京当局估计，房屋和汽车市场的下降，占到整体下降的2.1%。世博会结束后的上海，经历了奥运会结束后北京遇到的情况－－投资下降，上半年上海地方投资下降了5.5%，成为中国唯一一个报告投资下降的地区。
中国经济软着陆主要体现在沿海地区，但严重的下降出现在一些经济结构十分单一的地区。海南是一个很好的例子。岛内GDP增长显著下降，上半年降至10.4%，增幅比2010年上半年低9%，这是中国各省中下降最为明显的。尽管去年上半年海南是中国增长最快的地区，但是现在却是增长最缓慢的地区。这种过山车的情况主要因为在2010年岛内房地产市场短期繁荣后，房地产市场受到控制。
前景展望
地区GDP数据显示，中国经济并未走向硬着陆。事实上，许多地区的实际增长可能会更高，但是地方政府可能并未如实报告增长，表明其服从中央政府放缓增长进行经济结构调整的努力。在减轻硬着陆担忧的同时，相对强劲的地方GDP增长再次强调了经济的上行风险，而上行风险主要来源于地方层面。上半年，中央政府支出放缓至同比增长18.1%，地区政府支出同比激增35%，这很好的体现了中央和地区政府之间政策取向的分歧。
尽管整体地方经济增长表现出了活力，但一些部门的疲软需要注意：一方面是一些地区投资增长的急剧下降，尤其是上海和北京等沿海地区；另一方面房地产市场措施的影响，已经对地方建筑市场和零售市场造成一定后果。尽管多数下降是由于国内因素引起，但是外部因素需要更多的关注，以东莞为代表的一些中国南部出口中心已经报告出口的下降，而东莞是2008年中国出口下降最先表现出来的城市。
英文原文：China's Regional Economies Show Great Resilience Despite Slowdown i
reported地区GDP数据显示，中国经济并未走向硬着陆。事实上，许多地区的实际增长可能会更高，但是地方政府可能并未如实报告增长，表明其服从中央政府放缓增长进行经济结构调整的努力。在减轻硬着陆担忧的同时，相对强劲的地方GDP增长再次强调了经济的上行风险，而上行风险主要来源于地方层面。上半年，中央政府支出放缓至同比增长18.1%，地区政府支出同比激增35%，这很好的体现了中央和地区政府之间政策取向的分歧。
尽管整体地方经济增长表现出了活力，但一些部门的疲软需要注意：一方面是一些地区投资增长的急剧下降，尤其是上海和北京等沿海地区；另一方面房地产市场措施的影响，已经对地方建筑市场和零售市场造成一定后果。尽管多数下降是由于国内因素引起，但是外部因素需要更多的关注，以东莞为代表的一些中国南部出口中心已经报告出口的下降，而东莞是2008年中国出口下降最先表现出来的城市。
英文原文：China's Regional Economies Show Great Resilience Despite Slowdown i
n National Growth
The just-released regional GDP growth data for the first half show that regional economies, particularly those in central and western China, have shown considerable resilience in terms of growth, with most provinces still reporting double-digit growth.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance
The relatively strong regional growth figures for China's first half of the year have confirmed the strength in the national data, dissipating fears about a hard landing.
Implications
The just-released regional GDP growth data for the first half show that regional economies, particularly those in central and western China, have shown considerable resilience in terms of growth, with most provinces still reporting double-digit growth.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance
The relatively strong regional growth figures for China's first half of the year have confirmed the strength in the national data, dissipating fears about a hard landing.
Implications
Most of the soft patches in the Chinese economy have been reflected by the slowdown in coastal China, which has borne the brunt of most of the macro-control policies.
Outlook
While so far the slowdown has mainly been induced by domestic factors, external conditions are to be watched more closely going forward.
Still in Double-Digit Territory
While China's national GDP growth has dipped into the single-digit territory, down to 9.6% year-on-year （y/y） in the first half, most Chinese provinces are still growing at double-digit rates. Only three provinces－Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang－all from coastal China, were expanding at a single-digit rate in the first half. Beijing was the slowest growing region,
recording just 8% y/y growth. Shanghai was the second slowest, with growth of 8.4% y/y, while Zhejiang slipped back to the single-digit territory for the first time in six quarters, recording 9.9% y/y growth.
Other than the three coastal regions, the overall growth picture of Chinese provinces is quite strong. GDP growth in coastal China's Tianjin and inland China's Chongqing were the strongest, with Tianjin reporting 16.6% y/y growth in the first half, while Chongqing's 16.5% y/y was underpinned by the robust industrial sector. In addition, 18 of the 31 Chinese provinces recorded growth at or above 13%, a widely reported upper bound of regional growth targets for the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011–15）. Most of these high-growth regions, 15 out of the 18 total, are in inland China.
Slowdown Is Mainly a Coastal and Housing Story
While growth deceleration on the national level has been quite faint－from 9.7% y/y in the fi
Other than the three coastal regions, the overall growth picture of Chinese provinces is quite strong. GDP growth in coastal China's Tianjin and inland China's Chongqing were the strongest, with Tianjin reporting 16.6% y/y growth in the first half, while Chongqing's 16.5% y/y was underpinned by the robust industrial sector. In addition, 18 of the 31 Chinese provinces recorded growth at or above 13%, a widely reported upper bound of regional growth targets for the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011–15）. Most of these high-growth regions, 15 out of the 18 total, are in inland China.
Slowdown Is Mainly a Coastal and Housing Story
While growth deceleration on the national level has been quite faint－from 9.7% y/y in the fi
rst quarter to 9.6% y/y in the first half, the signs are even weaker on the regional level. Indeed, only one western province, Tibet, reported moderation in growth as of the end of the second quarter－from a scorching high of nearly 20% in the first quarter to 16.5% in the first half. Among central provinces, only four saw deceleration. Much of the deceleration in China has occurred in coastal China, where seven out of the ten regions reported slower growth in the first half compared with the first quarter. Average GDP growth in coastal China slowed from 11.6% in the first quarter to 11.3% in the first half, while growth in central China accelerated from 13.2% to 13.3%, and western China accelerated from 13.1% to 13.5%.
Indeed, coastal China is currently the most conspicuous weak link in terms of GDP growth, with its growth constrained by multiple challenges including power shortages and macro-control measures. For instance, Beijing's sharp growth deceleration, 4 percentage points down from y/y growth in the first half of 2010, is largely caused by the housing and auto market policies－the Chinese capital was the first to introduce home-purchase restrictions i
Indeed, coastal China is currently the most conspicuous weak link in terms of GDP growth, with its growth constrained by multiple challenges including power shortages and macro-control measures. For instance, Beijing's sharp growth deceleration, 4 percentage points down from y/y growth in the first half of 2010, is largely caused by the housing and auto market policies－the Chinese capital was the first to introduce home-purchase restrictions i
n the country, and was also the first to announce new car licence restriction measures after the end of the stimulus cycle. The statistics authority of Beijing estimates that 2.1 percentage points of the growth deceleration in the city was attributed to slowdown in the housing and auto markets. In Shanghai, the end of the World Expo in 2010 pushed the city into a similar investment downturn experienced by Beijing following the 2008 Olympic Games, with local investment contracting by 5.5% on the year in the first half, making it the only Chinese region reporting negative investment growth.
While much of the soft patches within the Chinese economy have been reflected by coastal regions, the most severe downshifts have been reported by some inland regions with extremely undiversified economic structure. Hainan is one good example. GDP growth on the island economy has simply fallen off the cliff, down to 10.4% in the first half, a 9-percentage-point deceleration from y/y growth in the first half of 2010－which represented the sharpest fall reported by a Chinese province. While the island was the fastest growing region in China as of the end of the second quarter last year, it has now become one of the
While much of the soft patches within the Chinese economy have been reflected by coastal regions, the most severe downshifts have been reported by some inland regions with extremely undiversified economic structure. Hainan is one good example. GDP growth on the island economy has simply fallen off the cliff, down to 10.4% in the first half, a 9-percentage-point deceleration from y/y growth in the first half of 2010－which represented the sharpest fall reported by a Chinese province. While the island was the fastest growing region in China as of the end of the second quarter last year, it has now become one of the
slowest growing regions. Such roller-coastering has been mainly driven by one single factor－the housing market slowdown which has taken hold following a short-lived housing boom on the island in 2010.
Outlook and Implications
The regional GDP data have provided little sign yet that the Chinese economy is heading for a hard landing. Indeed, it is believed that actual growth of many regional economies could be even higher, as regional governments have underreported growth to show their compliance with central government efforts to slow growth for the sake of economic structural adjustment. While alleviating fears of a hard landing, the relatively strong GDP growth in regional economies again highlights the persistent upside risk with the economy－and such upside risk has mainly come from the regional level. In the first half, central government spending growth slowed to 18.1% y/y, while local government spending still soared nearly 35% y/y－a perfect illustration of conflicting policy orientations pursued by lo
Outlook and Implications
The regional GDP data have provided little sign yet that the Chinese economy is heading for a hard landing. Indeed, it is believed that actual growth of many regional economies could be even higher, as regional governments have underreported growth to show their compliance with central government efforts to slow growth for the sake of economic structural adjustment. While alleviating fears of a hard landing, the relatively strong GDP growth in regional economies again highlights the persistent upside risk with the economy－and such upside risk has mainly come from the regional level. In the first half, central government spending growth slowed to 18.1% y/y, while local government spending still soared nearly 35% y/y－a perfect illustration of conflicting policy orientations pursued by lo
cal and central governments.
Despite the overall resilience of the regional growth picture, some soft patches beg attention: one is the sharp deceleration in investment growth in some regions, particularly in coastal regions such as Shanghai and Beijing; the other is the impact of the housing market measures, which are having ramifications for both regional construction markets and retail sales markets. While much of the slowdown has been induced by domestic factors, external factors need to be watched more closely going forward, with sharp deceleration in exports already reported in some exporting hubs such as southern China's Dongguan city－which was one of the first cities to fall in the 2008 exports downturn.
Despite the overall resilience of the regional growth picture, some soft patches beg attention: one is the sharp deceleration in investment growth in some regions, particularly in coastal regions such as Shanghai and Beijing; the other is the impact of the housing market measures, which are having ramifications for both regional construction markets and retail sales markets. While much of the slowdown has been induced by domestic factors, external factors need to be watched more closely going forward, with sharp deceleration in exports already reported in some exporting hubs such as southern China's Dongguan city－which was one of the first cities to fall in the 2008 exports downturn.
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